Even Trump's favorite pollster shows him losing by double digits

Donald Trump’s long-favored pollster shows Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leading him by double digits nationally, according to its most recent survey.

Rasmussen Reports’ Weekly White House Watch survey, released on Wednesday, found Biden polling at 52%, 12 points higher than Trump, who sits at 40%.

The survey, conducted by the conservative-leaning group on Sept. 30, Oct. 1, and Oct. 4-6, asked 2,500 “likely voters” who they would vote for “if the presidential race in 2020 was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.”

The results show Trump falling to his lowest level of support since the first week of White House Watch in early July, when he had a 15-point disapproval index rating. Biden has now cleared the 50% mark for two weeks in a row, Rasmussen noted.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday showed Trump with a 54% disapproval rating from “likely voters” in the United States and a 44% approval rating. Their latest poll figures also found 49% of respondents “strongly disapprove” and 34% “strongly approve” of the job Trump is doing.

The Rasmussen polls come after Trump’s belligerent presidential debate performance and positive coronavirus diagnosis last week. 

As recent as last month, Trump expressed his affinity for the pollster. 

“Rasmussen was one of the most accurate polls in 2016,” he tweeted on Sept. 14.

In another tweet on Sept. 25, Trump slammed the Fox News poll while lifting up Rasmussen. 

“One of the worst polls in 2016 was the @FoxNews Poll. They were so ridiculously wrong. Fox said they were going to change pollsters, but they didn’t,” he tweeted. “Rasmussen, which was accurate, at 52%.” 

Trump has praised the pollster repeatedly in the past. April 2018, Trump tweeted: “Thank you to Rasmussen for the honest polling. Just hit 50%.”

He called them “accurate” in 2017 and again in 2019. 

A previous Rasmussen Reports’ survey of 5,000 “likely voters” conducted July 5-7 also showed 50% support for Biden and 40% for Trump. 

Another Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll conducted on May 27 this year found Trump’s disapproval rating at 57% and approval rating at 42%. This 15-point margin was the worst since 2017. This survey was sponsored by pro-Trump activist Jack Posobiec of the far-right One American News Network.

Consequently, polling analysts have pointed out Rasmussen exhibiting distinct pro-Republican bias.

After the 2016 election, FiveThirtyEight founder and editor Nate Silver noted Rasmussen’s “Republican lean in its polls ran pretty much wire to wire.”

“It had a significant Republican house effect early in the election cycle and a significant Republican house effect late in the election, and it wound up turning into a significant Republican bias on Election Day,” he wrote. 

Rasmussen’s adjustment of data based on party identification tends “to be more along the partisan angle, leaning toward the Republicans,” said Mallory Newall, Ipsos Public Affairs research director, in a September 2018 interview on Hill.TV. 

Compared to other major polling firms, Rasmussen has consistently shown better numbers for Trump and his allies. 

After the 2018 midterms, analyst for CNN Politics Harry Enten claimed that Rasmussen’s polling was the least accurate of any firm after showing Republicans ahead nationally by one point when Democrats were winning by 8.6 points.

“That’s an error of nearly 10 points,” he wrote. “The midterm elections prove that at least for now Rasmussen is dead wrong and traditional pollsters are correct.” 

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.