Polls show GOP could lose Kansas Senate seat for first time since 1932

Several recent polls are showing Democratic Kansas state Sen. Barbara Bollier and Republican Kansas U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall locked in a dead heat to win the open Kansas seat in the U.S. Senate currently held by retiring Sen. Pat Roberts.

The last Democrat elected to a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill, who won in 1932 and was defeated for reelection in 1938. Roberts has served four terms.

A Data for Progress poll conducted from Sept. 14 to 19 and released this month shows Bollier and Marshall tied at 40%. In the same poll, undecided voters who were pressed to answer were evenly split between Bollier and Marshall at 42%. 

A Democratic internal poll conducted by GBAO Strategies between Sept. 24 and 27 and released Wednesday shows Bollier up by 2 points, 45% to 43%.

“Now we’re leading for the first time,” Bollier tweeted on Wednesday. “That’s momentum.” 

Roberts endorsed Marshall, who released an internal Republican poll from the Kansas City-based firm co/Efficient. In that poll, conducted on Sept. 15 and 16, Marshall leads Bollier by 4 points, 43% to 39%.

“Marshall is significantly underperforming other key metrics like the generic ballot and Presidential ballot. He has significant room to grow particularly with general election Republican voters,” suggests the internal polling memo, obtained by the Kansas City Star.

Marshall’s campaign manager, Eric Pahls, also says the congressman “has the momentum.” 

“Dr. Marshall has taken on nearly $15M in attack ads that started months ago, and still maintains the lead in this race. He has the momentum, and that will continue,” said Pahls.   

Earlier polls also showed the two candidates running a close race.

In early June, a Civiqs poll showed Marshall (42%) leading Bollier (41%) by one point.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted in early August shows Bollier and Marshall with just a 2% difference: Marshall at 46% and Bollier at 44%.

A Public Policy Polling survey released in early August showed Marshall (43%) leading Bollier (42%) by just one point. 

Bollier, a retired anesthesiologist, is a former Republican who left the party in 2018, saying that it no longer represented her values in part because of Trump, the Associated Press reported.

On the other hand, Marshall, who is also a physician, has closely aligned himself with Trump.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.