Poll shows Dave McCormick trailing Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania US Senate race

The Republican Party of Pennsylvania formally endorsed Dave McCormick, a wealthy former hedge fund executive from Connecticut, on Sept. 30 in his 2024 campaign against incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. The first poll of their likely head-to-head race since McCormick got in the race shows Casey in the lead.

The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 1,725 registered Pennsylvania voters between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2. It found 50% of those voters said they would vote for Casey, 44% for McCormick, and 1% for someone else. By a 42%-26% margin, they indicated they hold favorable opinions of Casey.

McCormick, who narrowly lost a 2022 Senate Republican primary to television host Mehmet Oz, is viewed favorably by 24% of Pennsylvania voters and unfavorably by 16%, while 60% said they haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion.

President Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by just a 50.0%-48.8% margin in the 2020 presidential election over then-President Donald Trump. Democratic nominee John Fetterman defeated Oz in the 2022 Senate general election 51.2%-46.3%.

The poll’s presidential results may indicate that the sample size was actually skewed slightly toward Republicans. The poll found Trump leading Biden 47%-45% in a hypothetical 2024 presidential general election. Three other recent Pennsylvania presidential polls found Biden ahead by 2-3 points.

With the Democratic caucus currently holding a 51-49 majority in the Senate, the 2024 Pennsylvania race is one of a handful that could determine control of the chamber — and with it, the future of policies that affect reproductive rights, gun safety, and tax fairness.

The Cook Political Report rates the race leaning Democratic and competitive.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.