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10 signs Trump's reelection chances are in serious trouble

A new Quinnipiac poll showed ‘no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend’ for Trump.

By Emily Singer - July 15, 2020
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Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s reelection chances are in dire straits, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.

The poll not only found Trump falling further behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, but also shows Trump has lost ground with his best constituencies from 2016.

“Yes, there’s still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real-time look at what the future could be for President Trump,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. “There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president.”

In response to the poor poll, Vice President Mike Pence told reporters, “The only poll that I put stock in is the one that’s going to take place on Nov. 3.”

That is usually not something winning candidates say.

Here are the 10 worst numbers for Trump from the survey:

Trump is losing Biden by 15%

The poll found Biden’s lead over Trump is growing.

Biden now leads Trump 52% to 37%, according to the poll. That’s a 3-point bump for Biden and a 4-point loss for Trump since Quinnipiac last polled the race in mid-June.

Biden achieving a majority of the vote as Trump falls below 40% is a troubling sign for Trump.

Biden now leads with white voters

White voters were Trump’s best constituency in 2016, when he carried the demographic 57% to 37% over Hillary Clinton, according to exit poll data.

But the Quinnipiac poll found Trump is now losing white voters to Biden, 49% to 43%.

Biden is leading with voters 65 and up

Older voters are the most reliable voting bloc in the country, and Biden now leads them over Trump by a whopping 14 points, 54% to Trump’s 40%

That’s a huge red flag for Trump, who won that demographic 52% to 45% in 2016, per exit poll data.

Trump’s approval rating is at its lowest level since August 2017

Less than four months from Election Day, Trump’s approval rating is at a paltry 36%, according to the poll.

That’s a full 6-point drop since Quinnipiac’s last survey from mid-June.

In October 2018 — right before the midterm elections in which Democrats won back control of the House for the first time in nearly a decade — Quinnipiac had Trump’s approval rating at 41%.

Voters now trust Biden more to handle the economy

Voters’ thoughts on which candidate could better handle the economy has been the one bright spot for Trump amid his recent polling slide, as voters consistently said they trusted Trump more than Biden on the issue.

In fact, Trump’s campaign viewed the economy as their way to turn the tides of the race to help Trump win.

However, Quinnipiac’s new poll found Trump has lost that edge.

By a margin of 50% to 45%, voters said they think Biden would do a better job with the economy than Trump. That’s a total reversal from Quinnipiac’s June poll, which found voters giving Trump the edge on the economy by a margin of 51% to 46%.

Trump’s approval rating on the coronavirus is at its worst level yet

The coronavirus is spreading like wildfire across the country, with the death toll rising above 135,000.

And those numbers seem to have taken a toll on Trump, as his approval rating on the issue has fallen to just 35% — the worst number since Quinnipiac began asking questions about Trump’s handling of the virus in March.

Even worse, the poll found that 62% of voters actually think Trump is hurting efforts to control the virus.

Nearly two-thirds of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of school reopenings

Trump and his administration have been pushing for schools to reopen and conduct full in-person learning this fall, despite the uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus in almost every state in the country.

And that doesn’t seem to be sitting well with voters, as 61% disapprove of the way Trump is handling the issue.

A deeper look shows that 62% of voters don’t think it’s safe for K-12 schools to resume in-person learning.

Voters think Trump is lying about his knowledge of Russian bounties

The revelation that intelligence officials had briefed Trump on a Russian attempt to get American troops killed by offering bounties to Taliban soldiers is not sitting well with voters.

The Trump administration claims Trump was never briefed on the issue, but 59% of voters aren’t buying that explanation.

Ultimately, more than three-quarters of voters, or 77%, are either “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the bounty story — which Trump has yet to address.

The Pentagon has said the reports of Russian bounties are “not corroborated.”

Fauci is trusted over Trump on coronavirus

The poll found voters trust infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci far more than Trump for information on the coronavirus.

Sixty-five percent trust Fauci for accurate information, while 67% do not trust Trump.

This comes as Trump and his administration have been trying to discredit Fauci.

Support for Confederate statues is declining

Trump has brushed back attempts by Congress and states to remove Confederate statues, as well as attempts to change the names of military bases named after traitorous Confederate generals who took up arms against the United States to preserve slavery.

Trump has claimed that the statues and military bases represent “heritage.” But a majority of voters disagree with his position.

Fifty-four percent of voters support removing Confederate statues, while 51% support renaming military bases named after Confederates.

In an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Trump said, “I know people that like the Confederate flag, and they’re not thinking about slavery.”

But the poll found voters disagree with that assessment, with 56% saying the flag is a symbol of racism.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.


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