Democratic Party identification surges after 2020 election

Democrats lead the GOP by nine points in party identification, a new Gallup poll released Wednesday morning found, marking the largest advantage Democrats have had in party identification since 2012.

The poll found an average of 49% of adults identify either as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. That’s in contrast to the 40% who identify as Republicans or Republican-leading independents.

That nine-point gap represents a surge from the end of 2020, when party identification was roughly tied.

The rise in Democratic Party identification followed the deadly insurrection Donald Trump incited at the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of President Joe Biden.

Since then, the number of people identifying as Republicans dropped to 25%, the poll found.

Gallup, which has tracked party affiliation for decades, said it’s not unusual for the party that just won an election to see identification surge.

However, Gallup reported that Republicans are facing the “smallest share of Republican identifiers since 2018,” when Democrats rode a wave to win control of the House.

It’s possible Republicans can close that gap ahead of the 2022 midterms, when the GOP will seek to win back the House and Senate majorities it lost during Trump’s tenure.

However, Gallup said those hopes “rest largely on the popularity level of the incumbent Democratic president,” as well as whether the GOP can appeal to independent voters.

But a Politico/Morning Consult tracking poll from the end of March found Republicans in Congress had just a 36% favorability rating from registered voters. That’s far lower than the 50% approval rating for Democrats in Congress.

Biden, for his part, currently has a 53.6% approval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker — a number that’s held steady since he was sworn in.

Trump, meanwhile, had an above-water approval rating for just 14 days of his entire tenure, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.

That above-water approval rating was for the first two weeks after he was sworn in back in 2017, with his highest average approval standing at 47.8%. By the time Trump left office, his average approval rating was a dismal 38.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.