Trump's trade war could kill nearly a million jobs by next year
Trump’s trade war could cost the American economy 900,000 jobs by next year, in addition to costing families up to $3,600 per year.
The fallout from Trump’s trade wars continues. Analysis from Moody’s Analytics reported on Tuesday indicates Trump’s policies have already cost the American economy 300,000 jobs and could kill almost a million jobs by the end of next year.
The analysis estimated that Trump’s trade war reduced employment in the U.S. by 300,000 jobs already, which included jobs eliminated by companies facing hardships as well as jobs not created. The Trump economy is on pace to lose 450,000 jobs by the end of 2019, and up to 900,000 jobs by the end of 2020.
The analysis also shows that the U.S. manufacturing, warehousing, distribution, and retail sectors are impacted the most. Data already shows America’s manufacturing sector is in a recession after six months of declining output.
While job losses may be abstract, Trump’s trade policies are also wreaking economic havoc on the average American family.
A separate analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) showed Trump’s trade war in on pace to cost families $2,031 next year, but that number could even higher.
“If all tariffs threatened by the Trump administration are imposed, combined with the current tariffs in place, the annual cost to U.S. consumers would be $461.1 billion and the cost for the average household would be $3,614,” the authors wrote.
Due to a variety of factors, the authors warned that “these results underestimate the burden on consumers” from Trump’s trade war. In August, an analysis from J.P. Morgan estimated Trump’s trade war will cost families $1,000 next year. Both studies agree that consumers are paying a price for Trump’s ongoing and escalating trade war with China and several other countries.
Further, the trade war could impact wages and employment, the NFAP analysis noted. “Nominal wages might fall, with predictable negative effects on labor participation,” the authors wrote.
Even as Trump publicly claims America is winning the trade war with China, his administration privately admits the massive economic harm he is causing, Politico reported Thursday. White House officials are looking for a way to cut a deal with China to stop the economic damage ahead of the 2020 election, where a sluggish economy would be a political anchor weighing Trump down.
As Trump administration officials bicker about the political fallout of Trump’s policies, American families will continue to pay the price for his trade war.
Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.
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