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Polls show Trump is in trouble and debates can't save him

Voters say their minds are made up.

By Emily Singer - September 29, 2020
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Donald Trump

As Donald Trump and Joe Biden prepare to take the stage for the first presidential debate in Ohio on Tuesday, a spate of new polling suggests neither man’s performance will have a measurable impact on the outcome of November’s election.

The vast majority of voters say their minds are fully made up, and nothing will change their votes. And that could be really bad news for Trump, who needs to change the trajectory of the race, as he’s currently down in the polls nationally and in nearly every swing state he needs to win in five weeks.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday found just 14% of voters said they could change their minds before Election Day. The poll found Biden’s voters are more firm in their choice, with 93% of them saying their minds are made up and won’t change. Among Trump voters. 89% say their minds are made up.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll from Sunday found just 5% of voters could change their minds at this point in the race. That survey showed Biden has a 10-point national lead over Trump.

And an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found 44% of voters said the debate is “not at all important” to their decision in the election.

It’s unclear what could change the minds of those voters who say they haven’t made a decision or could still change their vote.

However, Trump has been lowering the bar for Biden’s performance for months, falsely accusing Biden of having dementia — an offensive allegation that Trump surrogates have helped him push.

Just ahead of the debate, the Trump campaign seems to be trying to change that narrative, sending out a memo to GOP officials and talking heads that told them not to lower expectations for Biden with dementia accusations.

Of course, Trump didn’t take his own campaign’s advice, as he bizarrely accused Biden of taking performance-enhancing drugs and demanded Biden be drug tested ahead of Tuesday’s debate.

I will be strongly demanding a Drug Test of Sleepy Joe Biden prior to, or after, the Debate on Tuesday night. Naturally, I will agree to take one also. His Debate performances have been record setting UNEVEN, to put it mildly. Only drugs could have caused this discrepancy???” Trump tweeted on Sunday.

On Monday, Trump followed up that tweet saying, “Joe Biden just announced that he will not agree to a Drug Test. Gee, I wonder why?”

Biden’s campaign said it’s ridiculous that Trump is demanding a drug test for some mythical drug that makes someone’s debating skills better. Such a drug does not exist.

“If the president thinks his best case is made in urine he can have at it,” Biden’s campaign said in a statement. “We’d expect nothing less from Donald Trump, who pissed away the chance to protect the lives of 200K Americans when he didn’t make a plan to stop COVID-19.”
Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

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