Independents outnumber registered Republicans for the first time ever

As the 2020 election fast approaches, registered Republicans make up the smallest portion of the electorate since party registration was created in the early 1990s, according to a report from the Washington Post.

Pointing to data from Ballot Access News, the Washington Post reported that registered Democrats make up the largest portion of the electorate at 39.66%, followed by independents at 29.09%, and registered Republicans in last with 28.87%.

Of course, only 31 states and the District of Columbia have party registration — so the registration does not present the full picture of party identification in the country.

However, the news could be a troubling sign for Donald Trump and the Republicans seeking to ride his coattails to victory in November.

For example in 2004, when now-former President George W. Bush ran for and won reelection, Republicans made up 32.79% of the electorate, according to the Washington Post.

Other caveats apply as well.

While registered Republicans are now outnumbered by independents, Democrats have also seen a dip in party registration since 2016, according to the Washington Post’s report.

In 2016, registered Democrats amounted to 40.6% of the electorate in the states that have party registration. That means in 2020, Democrats have seen a 0.94% drop.

Republicans have also seen a dip, but not as big as Democrats’. In 2016, registered Republicans amounted to 29.31% of the electorate in states with party registration. That means in 2020, Republicans saw a smaller half-percentage-point drop.

However, Democrats have seen encouraging signs in registration across the country.

In the battleground state of Florida, there are now more than 5.04 million registered Democrats — outnumbering the 4.79 million registered Republicans. It’s the first time a party has ever surpassed 5 million registered voters in the state.

And New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Raymond Buckley announced on Thursday that, “For the first time in 10 years, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Hampshire, and Democrats have the most registered members of a political party ever in our state.”

“Before the primary, we set out with a goal to flip the voter registration edge Republicans have held in our state for a decade – and we did it! – thanks to all of the grassroots organizing and outreach by Granite Staters like you leading up to the primary,” Buckley said in an email to supporters.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.