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Women give Dems massive lead for 2018 as they abandon GOP in record numbers

Democrats have a 35-point lead with women — and it’s only getting bigger.

By Eric Boehlert - January 22, 2018
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Women's March demonstrators walk past the White House on the anniversary of Trump's inauguration

Two days after millions of protesters participated in Women’s March events all over the country, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll confirms just how the stunning the turn-away from the GOP and Donald Trump has become among women voters.

Asked which party they would vote for in the midterm elections, 64 percent of American women said they would pull the lever for a Democratic candidate, compared to just 29 percent for Republicans. That produces as stunning 35-point advantage for Democrats.

Last fall, when ABC and the Washington Post polled the same question, the gap stood at 15 points. So it has bulged 20 points in just two months.

By comparison, Republicans today enjoy a modest nine-point advantage among men voters.

The new survey also found there’s been a huge increase for Democrats among non-white voters. The party’s advantage among them has jumped from an already robust 32 points in November to an even larger 59 points today.

Overall, Democrats enjoy a 12-point lead among registered voters in terms of the generic ballot question for November, and an even larger 14-point lead among likely voters. And that’s unusual for the party.

“Democrats typically lose support in the shift to likely voters, given lower turnout among their stalwart groups,” ABC notes. “That’s not the case now.”

Incredibly, the Democratic lead among likely voters has exploded from two points last November to 14 points today.

Any time a party posts double-digit leads in these kinds of polls, forecasters start talking about a wave election, which can result in one party picking up two or three dozen seats in the House.

Overall, Democrats need to flip 24 seats to take control of the House. The Cook Political Report currently rates 63 GOP seats as being competitive in November. By comparison, just 21 Democrats seats are deemed to be competitive, while the rest are safe.

According to the ABC poll, the support for Democrats among Democratic voters is off the charts, with 97 percent now committed to voting for the party in November.

Meanwhile, Republicans can’t even find possible candidates to contest key Democrats.

“Republican leaders have failed to secure their top-choice candidate in eight of the 10 Senate races in states that Trump won in 2016, and Florida Gov. Rick Scott has yet to commit to his expected run for Sen. Bill Nelson’s seat,” Politico reported last week.

On the Democratic side, the campaign enthusiasm is contagious.

In California alone, “There already are 43 Democrats, many of them with plenty of campaign cash, lined up to challenge Republicans in the top seven districts targeted by their party,” according to a recent San Francisco Chronicle report.

This is what a wave looks like.


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